2015/12/16

Why Trump won’t win the Republican Nomination

A lot of people keep saying “Trump won’t get the Republican nomination” and a lot of Trump supporters respond by pointing to the various national polls, which as of this post range somewhere between 27-41% nationally.  Trump supporters seem to be everywhere, and loud about it, so I hope to clarify the dichotomy.

Who are the subjects of the polls?  Likely voters?  In some cases, it’s registered voters, which produces the least reliable election data ever.  I heard a couple of folks on talk radio discuss independent voters.  Great, but these people don’t vote in Republican primaries.  Republican primary voters vote in Republican primaries, they only vote for actual Republicans, and only a very select few do so dependably.  Oh yes, I know YOU’RE going to vote THIS time because you’re so riled up for the Donald and so forth, but you won’t.  You especially won’t if it’s raining, or if your primary polling place isn’t where you normally vote for the general election, or if you have to work and can’t make it. 

How do I know this?  Because I know who votes in Republican primaries.  Don’t believe me?  Let’s look at some numbers.

I live in Harris County Texas, which is considered by many experts to be the home of the largest, most powerful county Republican party in the nation.  The turnout numbers for the past 3 Presidential years in Harris County, Texas look like this.

2010
There were 1,901,722 registered voters in Harris County.
Of that 1.9 million people, 161,250 people voted for President in the Republican Primary.
That makes voter turnout approximately 8.5%

2008
There were 1,809,742 registered voters in Harris County.
Of that 1.8 million people, 169,448 people voted for President in the Republican Primary.
That makes voter turnout approximately 9.4%

2004
There were 3,618,814 registered voters in Harris County.
Of that 3.6 million people, 78,898 people voted for President in the Republican Primary.
That makes voter turnout approximately 2.2%

As an aside, the vast decrease in registered voters between 2004 and 2008 was a part of mass purging by the voter registrar of dead people, people who moved, and those otherwise ineligible to vote in Harris County.

I pull the past 3 Presidential primary years, because Presidential primary years are higher turn out years than non-Presidential primary years.  Now, in the world of all primary voters, there are those unicorns who, in the business of people who look at this stuff professionally, are referred to as “3Rs”.  A “3R” is simply a person who has voted in the last 3 Republican primaries.  These are the most highly targeted voters by Republican candidates because they’re considered to be the staunch loyalists who will absolutely show up and vote.  I call them unicorns because look at that low number, that 2.2%.  That’s a fairly good estimate of who your 3Rs are.  “So, OK,” you’re going to say, “but look at those 1.8M people in 2004 who weren’t even eligible to vote.”  Fine, let’s take that 2008 registered voter number, which is going to give you the highest percentage, and the 2004 turnout and estimate that 4.4% of the voting population is a 3R.

OK, now who is this 4% really?  Generally, they’re people who may be active in the Party, they research and/or know some of the candidates, most vote all the way down the ballot (yes even for those Judge positions), and/or all of them follow politics and issues year round, not just a few weeks before the elections when the commercials start running.  A lot of them receive Christmas cards from candidates’ and/or office holders’ offices.  They’re not necessarily big donors, but they’re doing something, even if it’s reading or listening to the news every day, and most are just doing it quietly.  A 3R probably won’t correct the bad facts you got from that whatever talking point, because you’re not worth the energy.  But, most importantly, they’re showing up every election, rain or shine, and you aren’t.

3Rs generally do their homework.  Most know that Donald Trump ran for office at the behest of Bill Clinton, and he's not really a Republican.  They know that he donated money to Hillary Clinton and other Democrats, because he’s friends with them and that whole New York Yankee liberal set.  They know that his vast wealth results from the highly regulated and dysfunctional New York crony real estate market.  3Rs know Trump’s a big believer in Kelo because he’s used it like a club.  3Rs know what Kelo is.  3Rs know that Donald Trump bankrupted a casino, which is basically its own cash printing factory.  They know he’s been pushed out of most of the businesses he’s ever run by his shareholders on the condition that the businesses maintain his name so as not damage his reputation and to prevent him from suing.  The man is litigious as hell.  3Rs know Trump is a brand; Trump is Nike, Coca-Cola, or Snickers.  3Rs don’t vote Snickers.  And you can look up the rest of those facts your own lazy, non voting self.

3Rs are still watching Rubio, Cruz, Paul, and even Bush, although many recognize “Bush fatigue”.  Many find Carson and Fiorina interesting, but most know how the process works against even the strongest and most talented.  Many 3R are leaning toward a candidate, but are as of yet undecided. 

I know a lot of 3Rs, and even though I don’t always vote Republican in the general election, I am a 3R.  Hell, I think I’m about a 13R at this point.  Back in the old days when I was a Precinct Chair there was one dude in my precinct who had voted in more Republican primaries than I had.  The guy was in his 80’s and had only voted in one more primary than I had.  

I vote in Republican primaries, even as a now independent, because primaries are where the elections are really decided in a lot of cases.  96% of you won’t vote in them; I will.

TL: DR? The polls aren’t accurate.  The loudest talkers aren’t the frequent voters; look at Ron Paul’s past election results.  That guy is the President of the Internet.  Everyone thought the Mayor of 9/11 (a.k.a. Rudy Giuliani) was going to win the nomination in 2008.  How'd that go?

If someone wanted to conduct an accurate poll, the questions would look something like this:

Of the last 4 Republican primaries, in how many have you voted?
If the election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?

Then unbeknownst to the respondents, any answer lower than 2 to the first question would disqualify them from being counted in the second question.  You want to know who is the most likely to win the Republican nomination?  Who will capture the 4%?  Well, there you go.

2015/12/08

Links

The ACLU is against no-fly lists and terror watch lists, until Donks want to use them to ban guns, then hey great, OK fine, we love 'em.  More lefty hyprocrisy.

Why does your dog stare at you while he poops? These are all legit explanations.

2015/12/03

Links

Muslim terrorists shoot up a Christmas party in San Bernardino.  Obama doesn't let the bodies get cold before he starts lecturing us about giving up our guns, except, people don't shoot up places where people shoot back.

Sandy Berger, former Clinton NSA advisor is dead at 70. Famous for stealing top secret documents from the national archives, stuffing them in his undies, and stashing them at a construction site, he's just another casualty in the Clinton trail of destruction.

Iraqi Christians believe President Obama is actively supporting the Islamic State.  So do must Americans...

Houston is both the paisley and the zombie capital of America according to Spoonflower.  See what types of fabrics your town buys here.

Another lefty hypocrite pledges his stock to charity to make the "world a better place", actively engages in tax avoidance.
The super wealthy generally don't generate their income from wages, so they don't pay income taxes like the rest of us.   I have nothing against wealthy people and admire them for their industriousness; however, stop preaching to the rest of us about what you don't do.

The National Video Game Museum will be opening in Frisco, TX. Do with that whatever you want.

2015/12/02

Links

The hypocrisy of statists.  Doing everything they can to destroy the American economy, and we're paying for it.  If they're so afraid of causing some bad weather, couldn't they have locked themselves indoors and held their meeting via Skype?

People are naming their kids after Instagram filters.  Looks like little Khaleesi will be going to school with Lux, Juno, and Amaro.  Why do people want to punish their children?

2015/11/19

Links: 2015.11.19

The Washington Post breaks down from where the Clinton's $3B comes.
Remember folks, they're broke.  I'm ready for Hillary alright, to be convicted and go to prison.

8 Syrians caught in Laredo
Just doing jobs Americans won't do...

It doesn't matter, because ISIS is already here.
There's no way to vet Syrian refugees.   Yes, your government lies again.

About a Quarter of British men believe they  have "man periods"
When you guys start experiencing a monthly bleed out your orifices, let's talk.

More people sending their "acts of love" unaccompanied across the border.
Syrians aren't all that's coming into America illegally.


Roman/Pagan Basilica open to public.
Archaeology is cool.

If only President Obama condemned Islamic Terrorists with the same vitriol as he does his political opposition.  On the other hand, I'm sure Muslim kooks enjoy being told by this idiot what they believe and represent about as much as I do.  Respect your political betters, peon.

2015/11/12

Links: 2015.11.12

A completely not whack job explanation of the "climate change" debate.  We may be cooling due to sun cycles.

Honor killings may be on the rise due to immigration, but crimes are buried in stats.  Often families don't cooperate.  No, I don't respect this brand of "culture". It's barbaric and should be punished to the maximum extent of the law.

2015/11/10

Links: 2015.11.10

Your new Facebook friend might be FBI.
You think yeah criminals are stupid, but they're tracking all of us.

An argument for taking the PC movement seriously.  Oh, I think we should take it seriously and shut it the fuck down.   Sorry we damaged your feels, little snowflake, now close your mouth and open your ears.  Not everyone agrees with you.  In other news, and ivy league education at this point (not tempered by time at a non-ivy school) should be an automatic disqualifier for any job in government.