Online Poll Fail

So, Ron Paul (R-onulan) has announced his exploratory committee and team for Iowa. I think we should all keep in mind the sad truth about online polls:

Any online poll is worthless, and polls featuring candidate Paul are doubly so.

The Ronulans are the undisputed masters of swarming online polls to give him approval numbers usually seen only in one-party dictatorships. If he actually does throw his hat in the ring, the crazy will, just like last time, come crawling out of the woodwork and crush any online poll with him in it.

This is, I should add, simply a statement of fact, not a value judgement on Paul's candidacy. I voted for Paul in the primary last time, even after he had already dropped out. But his legions of online supporters are more than a little nuts, and don't represent the candidate well. Since I'm not the candidate, this really isn't my problem.

Quick Reaction

One of the problems with the Ron Paul (RON PAUL!) campaign was the manner in which it was run. A lot of people have questioned where the money went and why he didn't run a more visible (read: better) campaign with the funds. The answer is in his campaign staff. Ron Paul kept, for the most part, the same campaign staff he had for his congressional campaigns. So you had a national Presidential campaign being run by the staff of a third-tier congressman from Nowhere, Texas. Strangely enough they didn't run the best campaign imaginable for a national office. I imagine this comes as a shock to some people, although I'm not sure why.

I've heard the suggestion that he could have hired a more knowledgeable campaign staff. The number of people who have run campaigns at the national level is vanishingly small, and none of them were going to go work for Ron Paul. The winners are all establishment players, and the losers want to be. Neither group is going to offend people they may need jobs from later by working for a campaign trying to upset the established power structure. It's not a smart career move unless you can win. I'm sure they parsed the chances of Ron winning about like I did. (See also: snowball, hell, chances in)

Having said all that, Bob Barr's people are reacting quicker and being more politically astute than Ron's people. This is a good sign and bodes well for the remainder of the season.

Vote For The Last Time

Since we have put the house on the market and signed the contract on the new house, J has decided to not run for precinct chair after the primary. This means the primary tomorrow will be the last time I will be working the polls for the foreseeable future. So, for the final time, I will exhort you to go and vote and be nice to your election workers. After tomorrow, I won’t care if you decide the appropriate course of action is to pelt election workers with rancid gummi bears. I won’t approve and you’ll be an asshole for doing it, but since you won’t be pelting me I won’t get too incensed about it.

If you’re voting donk, vote for the candidate least likely to win the general election. I have no idea which one that is, although current polling data suggests Clinton. You won’t be in my polling place in any event. Don’t forget to caucus, lest your vote be overturned by the machinations of your local donk activists. Don’t let that happen to you! Caucus, and demand your rights, loudly and often! Don’t take no guff from nobody! How you voted is how that caucus should go, and say so as loudly and vociferously as possible! Make your viewpoint heard, as often as possible!*

If you’re voting efenant, I humbly suggest Ron Paul on top and anybody other than Her Majestic Pinkness in the CD22 race. Honestly, out of all the people running, any random selection would have to do a better job than her. If you can’t vote for Paul, and think McCain is quite possibly a manifestation of the antichrist, uncommitted may be your option. Just don’t vote for the Huckabeeste, because, despite what I was told this weekend, we do not need a “spiritual godfather” in the White House. The phrase makes me think of a grinning Baptist Don Corleone. Pass national health care and a flat tax or get a horse’s head in your bed and a sermon when you complain about it. Anyhow, if you’re voting efenant, there is no caucus after the election, so don’t show up. There’s nothing to accomplish except boring party business.

*If even one person takes this advice and makes the donk precinct chair's night miserable, I can sleep in peace knowing I have done something for humanity today.

Vice Presidential Dreams

So Mittens bailed out in an attempt to make himself look statesman-like for his 2012 run at the prize. People are now asking the inevitable question: who will McCain, as nominee presumptive, pick as his VP? If he picks Huckabeeste, it’s all over but the crying. Whichever donk wins the nomination will beat that ticket like a redheaded stepchild. Of course, I predicted Fred as the eventual winner. My crystal ball is apparently a bit murky when it comes to politics.

I can, however, tell you who it won’t be: Ron Paul. Somebody floated that absurd idea at me the other day and it was more than I could do to not laugh at the poor soul. First, the fact the Washington establishment is not overly enamored of the good Doctor comes into play. McCain is nothing if not an insider. He shares many viewpoints with a lot of the elitist asshats in DC, and Ron Paul isn’t a part of that club. Conversely, why the hell would Ron Paul want to take the VP slot with an asshat like McCain in the pilot seat? He would have little or no influence, and wouldn’t see any of his ideas implemented. Plus, when McCain acts like the crazy old man he is, Paul gets tarred by association.

The final reason is the brutally pragmatic one. I would not take odds on anybody who gets elected with Ron Paul as their VP surviving their term of office. Somebody out there would decide that Ron Paul as President was worth the price, and try to take McCain out.

Look for Thompson to be the VP pick. Romney won’t take it because he has dreams of 2012, and nobody else registered enough interest with voters to matter.

Chugging Bourbon Straight From The Bottle

So we've at least rid the election of the President of 9/11. That's a bonus, however you look at it. We've also disposed of Fred! and the Biggest Douche in the Universe. So we're left with a fairly dispiriting list of electable candidates.

We've got the whacked out ex-military guy with no understanding of the Constitution and anger management issues along with a tenuous grasp on reality.

We've got Mittens and his Magical Mormon Manpanties. I'd tell you what his positions are on the issues, but until the poll data comes back he won't know.

We've got Clinton II - The Sequel. Spending four years listening to that woman would drive me nuts, and all her policy positions make me want to vote with a .308.

There's the Baptist guy who thinks we need to revise the Constitution to make it more like his version of the bible.

We've also got the brother with the silver tongue. He doesn't say much about his socialism-lite, but he says it very prettily.

Finally, we've got an old Doctor who thinks a variety of things, most unpalatable to the average voter, about the scope and scale of federal government.

Yeah, I think I know what I'll be doing come election night while I wait for the bad news.

Death by Popularity

I am rather consistently amused by the attempt of all parties to discount Ron Paul from the various internet popularity contests Presidential polls. This started several months ago, when Pajamas Media yanked Ron Paul from their straw poll because his supporters were “cheating” or some such crap. The comedy has continued, with nearly every poll being fiddled with amidst charges that Ron Paul supporters are doing horribly nefarious things, like voting multiple times! The horror! Now the bafflement is in full swing amongst the mainstream media and Jesse Walker has some good points up on the whole issue.

Let’s face the facts: internet polls are literally, and virtually, meaningless. What internet polls do quite well is give the press (and bloggers) something to discuss. Beyond that disputably useful service, I’m not real sure they accomplish a damn thing except give supporter warm fuzzies. They don’t translate in any meaningful way to electoral results. If they did, Howard Dean would be President right now. But the need for content is insatiable these days, so the discussion turns to why Ron Paul keeps doing so well in the useless online polls. I mean, really, he’s a minor candidate! Roger Simon says so!

I wouldn’t ask why Ron Paul is doing so well online. (The answer, by the way, is a committed fan base among online residents.) The question I would be asking is why are the “major” candidates doing so poorly in these polls right now? The anointed first rank is not doing a good job of getting the supporters riled up if Ron Paul’s groupies can ‘skew’ the results this badly. Somebody might want to ask why, but the answers might be a tad bit unsettling. Instead, we’ll keep hearing that Ron Paul doesn’t matter and that he’s a minor candidate until the web savvy finally get with the program and vote for some candidate who has been anointed. Then we can go back to ignoring the pesky outsiders and focus on the true candidates, like John McCain. After all, he’s going to win the Republican nomination right around the 12^th of Never, so he must be a serious contender.

Silly me. I thought the debates and all the activities occurring right now were to figure out which candidates were serious. I didn’t realize the press, in its infinite wisdom, could handicap the race this far out. Personally, I don’t think any of the currently declared candidates are going to get the GOP nomination. But I’ve been wrong before, so we’ll see.

Update: Apparently, Ron Paul is not only not a serious candidate, he’s not even a Republican. I'm sure all the people that voted for him under that assumption will be crushed.

Run Ron Run

Well, it’s official, even though it's yesterday's news. Ron Paul (R-ockstar) is running for President. Yay!

He’ll lose, of course. As much as I would like him to win, there’s really no possible way. My real hope is that Ron Paul will be a credible enough candidate to drag the debate in the correct direction. In any event, I’ll be voting for him in the primary.